Friday, March 31, 2006

McStallen's 2006 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Part III- Starting Pitching


Starting pitching is where it's won or lost, I shit you not. A-Rod, Pujaholski, Vlad etc are outstanding players. But you cannot win without good reliable starting pitching.

Now I love talking about young arms, but today I would rather talk about young starting pitching. And here is my priceless theory on starting pitching:

The first time around the league, the young pitcher has the drop on everyone and puts up great numbers. The second time*around the league, the hitters adjust, and the pitchers gets rung up alot. The third time around the league (and thereafter) the pitcher readjusts and settles into his groove as a mature hurler.



And now I'll apply the theory:

A. First time around the league - these guys should be good
1) Brian Bannister- Pitching out of the friendly confines of Shea stadium, Bannister is one to watch.

2) Justin Verlander- should do pretty well for the Tigers. Not related to this guy, although their names sound similar.

3) Taylor Buchholz- Who? Well the former Phillies prospect will have a few nice starts for the Astros. And that will probably be the highpoint of his career.

4) Jonathan Papelbon- in the BoSox bullpen now, but he'll be starting at some point this year.

5) Sean Marshall- the Cubs plan to give this guy a few starts while some of their starters (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and/or Wade Miller) recover on the DL. If Marshall pitches well, Dusty Baker has already promised management that he will completely wear down Marshall's arm in 2 months or less.



B. Second time around the league- Avoid - will experience and growing pains and will not be worth it:
1) Zach Duke- I'm thinking 8-8 with a 4.00 ERA. it's not like he'll get run support anyway. For 2006, expect to be disappointed. Long-term, expect good things.

2) Matt Cain- this guy has always had control problems- he'll break out in 2007- if you're not in a keeper league, than kick this guy to the curb and drop a brick on him Reginald Denny style.

3) Gustavo Chacin- this crafty lefty will get lit up like a X-mas tree this year- err "Holiday tree"- he'll probably get alot of run support, but not enough...

4) Jason Vargas- the NL version of Chacin

5) Joe Blanton- 9.58 ERA this spring- may not take a step backward this year, but probably won't take a step forward

6) Scott Baker- Just gave up 11 earned runs and 10 hits in 1 2/3 innings during an exhibition game that supposed to be his final preseason tune-up- and OK, he edged out DUI-boy Francisco Liriano for a starting spot- but Liriano's the better pitcher. And Kirby Puckett's dead.

7) Chris Young- one word- "dead arm"



C. Third time around the league- ready to turn the corner
1) Erwin Santana- Young Erwin is developing as a pitcher, and will have a great offense him, which should really help -and the Angel pen is diesel, and can pitch him out of alot of jams.

2) Scott Kazmir- last year he had an ERA below 4.00, unheard of for a Devil Ray starter. This man will do great things- and the Mets gave him away for Victor Zambrano.

3) Gavin Floyd- just edged out Ryan Franklin for a spot in the Philadelphia rotation -as Matt Potalivo once sad, this guy has nasty nasty stuff.

4) Brandon Claussen- former Yanquis prospect may develop into a good pitcher this year- but it will be hard to tell since he pitches in Coors Jr

5) Dewon Brazleton- may have finally figured things out in San Diego- Tampa Bay gave up on him, but McStallen, and apparently San Diego, have not

6) Kyle Davies- only thing holding this guy back is the fact that the Braves only good coach (Leo Mazzone or Lee Mazzili- whoever the pitching coach was) left, and Davies' development is left to the mercy of functional alcoholic and admitted wife-beater Bobby Cox

7) Noah Lowry- hopefully he gets a little more control and lowers the WHIP - but he's a great strikeout pitcher who should be really comfortable this year, especially after signing a new 4-year contract.

8) Dave Bush- another Demon Deacon making good, and arguably the most boring player in professional baseball, the Bushman will likely enjoy the transition from junior circuit to senior circuit and put up nice numbers in dreary Milwaukee.


D) Exceptions to the rule
Felix Hernandez- this guy is going to be so fucking good that my theory is just inapplicable- the only thing holding him back is endurance - he had some preseason shin problems, but they are allegedly behind him (if you believe what you read)

Zack Grienke- the guy is nuts - all bets are off


Wednesday, March 29, 2006

McStallen's 2006 Fantasy Baseball Preview- Part II- The Middle Infield


OK we did catchers and closers in the last post, so let's talk middle infield now. And although fantasy seasons are not won or lost by the middle infield, it's still an important area- so pay attention.

Shortstops
We'll do shortstops first. This used to be a really stocked position, but alot of the older stars have dropped off or become ineligible (Nomar, A-Rod, Omar Vizquel etc) and alot of the new blood (Bobby Crosby, JJ Hardy, Josh Bartlett, Khalil Greene, and BJ Upton) hasn't really arrived yet.

So what are we left with? Well there are still a bunch of good shortstops (Tejada, M Young, Reyes, Furcal etc), but not enough to go around. So don't wait to long to plug this whole.
And here're some players you may (not?) want to consider...

Abraham Nunez- a nice sleeper who can do almost all the positions- look for him to get alot of PT with Philly and maybe even earn a starting role by bumping David Bell off thirdbase. He is the second coming of Placido Polanco, and that is a beautiful thing for the lowly city of Philadelphia.

Clint Barmes- I think this is a guy to avoid- after his controversial deer-meat injury last year, he was never really the same. Barmes came back and hit poorly in September and October '05 (.216), then hit poorly in winterball, and then hit poorly during the spring (.212). He's pretty high-strung, and this could be physical or mental- whatever it is, just stay away.

Luis Gonzalez is the good value when you're talking Colorado Rockies middle infielders- and who doesn't like to talk about that? Gonzalez hit nearly .400 this spring, and this year he should finally get his chance to start- don't expect huge numbers, but hopefully he can hit .280-.290 and play virtually every position but catcher.

Nomar Garciapara- this guy keeps falling in drafts, and I think he's a real sleeper- he'll play firstbase, but be eligible at 1B, 3B, and SS- if he stays healthy, he could be very effective, and a great value pick. He'll avoid the DL all year long so long as he plays 1B- I god damn guarantee you that.

Cesar Izturis is one to watch- he was an all-star last year, and will miss at least half the season with an injury. Given the lack of depth at this position, he's probably worth stashing on your DL. Beware- even when healthy, he has about as much pop in his bat as Coco Khoury.


Second base
There's a bit more talent here, but I wanted to go over some of the less obvious talent...

Ian Kinsler- The Rangers unloaded Alfonso Soriano because they think Kinsler is ready to take over. Or was that just face-saving propaganda promulgated by their GM? Hmmm... Kinsler ought to be eligible at 2B and SS in most leagues, and could be a 20-20 guy. But don't take him too early- alot of time guys like this are sent to the minors after a month and disappear faster than a high school senior in Aruba.

Bill Mueller- Bill Mueller is about as boring a player that there is. Aside from the fact you pronounce his name oddly (pronounced "Miller"), I don't think this pack of shit stands out for anything. But he's eligible at 2B and 3B, had a hot spring, and should hit .290-.300 this year- so take notice.

Josh Barfield- a top prospect who is the son of a 1980s baseball star playing in the San Diego infield? Hopefully this will be better than the last time that happened- with Sean Burroughs that is. A few years back I remember some fantasy pundit writing, "It's only a matter of time before Sean Burroughs wins his first batting title." Egads- that's another reason why young writers need to steer clear of sensationalism - it's like I tell my students- most things don't end up being sensational, so keep the hype to a minimum and act like you been there. But many of those fucking kids don't learn, and that's when I go to plan B and beat some common sense into them.
Anyway Barfield has had a great spring and will be starting at 2B and batting lead-off- should be a nice sleeper 2B with alot of upside.

Mark Loretta- Mr. Loretta finally got himself into a nice spot- he should thrive batting second for the BoSox- count on alot of runs and a very nice OPS. Steals and homers won't happen much, but Loretta will be a very good draft value nonetheless.


OK that's all I got now. Again if you want all my cheatsheets, rankings and blueprints, you'll need to become a McStallen Insider, best $19.95 you'll ever spend on something non-lethal.

Monday, March 27, 2006

McStallen's 2006 Fantasy Baseball Preview -Part I- Pitchers and Catchers


I originally started this blog to talk about fantasy sports. But many readers kept hounding me about the personal details of my life as a deranged mercenary- and so gradually over time I just started using my blog to write about people I tried to kill in order to appease the littles. But every once in a while I like to kick it old school and return to my true passion, which is not cold-blooded murder, but rather fantasy sports.

Ergo I'm going to use the next few blog postings to provide abbreviated fantasy baseball insight. If you want all my rankings and baseball wisdom, you'll need to pay $19.95 and become a McStallen Insider. The first 500 people to sign-up get free claymores. And membership is free to anyone who has purchased an assault rifle from me over the last 180 calendar days. As always, all proceeds go to my charity to rebuild the Berlin Wall- which is tax deductible in Syria.

All right so let's talk about pitchers and catchers- seems like a natural place to start...

Catchers
-I know Colorado catchers have a terrible track record, but I'm really surprised no one has jumped on any of them in the drafts I've been monitoring. It seems like Danny Ardoin is duking it out with Yorvit Torrealba for a race to the bottom. But keep an eye on this situation- if Torrealba gets healthy, he could be a solid producer. Similarly, if Ardoin stays hot, he could plug a big fantasy hole. More power to him.

-And how about Baltimore? With Javy Lopez and Ramon Hernandez on the roster, I think both could have great years- To start the season, Lopez will play firstbase and Hernandez will catch, but that could change alot and both could be DH'ing or likewise getting more time off from behind the plate, and that ought to help them out alot.

-Las Molinas- the Molina family (Ben, Yadier, and whomever the third guy is) has ravaged the catching position like the Gramatickas desecrated the world of NFL kicking. Don't buy into them- they are garbage and Bo Diaz could outcatch all of them- well, he could if he hadn't been impaled on that fateful day in November 1990 by a satellite dish.

-Mauer vs. V-Mart? So who's the best catcher? Both these guys have very good K-BB ratios. Mauer can steal and Martinez cannot- but here's what really sells it for me- after the all-star break last year, Martinez hit .380 and Mauer hit .284. So I have to give a big edge to Mr. Martinez

-----------------------------------------------------
And now for some closer talk

Closers
-Florida- they're officially going with Joe Borowski, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry Lightenberg ends up in there soon. Also, Matt Herges has closing experience, and Travis Bowyer (recently sent packing to AAA) could always be called up and get a shot later in the season.

-Cincinnati- this stuff changes alot, but for now look for righty David Weathers to be the primary closer, and lefty Kent Merker to get the call when the Reds are facing a predominantly left-handed line-up in the 9th.

-Pittsburgh- I'm not sold on Mike Gonzalez- great numbers- but he's a lefty, and I think Pittsburgh may occasionally use Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, or another righty to close depending on the situation.

-Atlanta- Chris Reitsma has done an OK job at closer, but Atlanta has traditionally had very effective closers under the leadership of confessed wife-beater/functional alcoholic Bobby Cox- they made a big mistake with Danny Kolb, and Reitsma is sort of the damage control that was left-over- but I think it's only a matter of time before "lights out" Joey Devine gets the call and Atlanta once again has a quality closer. And Oscar Villareal might keep the mound warm for a few weeks as Atlanta transitions from Reitsma to Devine.

-Tampa Bay- Chad Orvella is technically the closer this week, but there are alot of hats in the ring on this one- Dan Miceli, Jesus Colume, Chad Harville etc. Look for Miceli to actually get the first save opportunities. None have much of a track record, so don't put too much faith in any of them. At least that boner Lou Pinella isn't around to confuse things even more with his misinformation.

-Cleveland- Bob Wickman is a fat pud- over the past few years, he has clung to his closer role and fended off a bunch of bums like Raphael Betancort and Doug Riske or whoever they hell they are- but I think he has met his match in one Fernando Cabrera- it should be only a matter of time before the young flame-thrower takes over- maybe even before the all-star break.

-Kansas City- Ambriorix Burgos will close while the oft-injured Mike MacDougal is on the DL for the next 4-6 weeks, and Burgos could hold onto that spot if he pitches well. Burgos had a great preseason so he could be a nice sleeper.

-WhiteSox-this time last year, I was calling for the head of the abominable Mr. Zero (Shingo Takatsu)- this year I am targeting another closer- Bobby Jenks- who seems to have lost all his velocity. Neal Cotts is healthy and has nasty stuff and is just waiting to get his chance to close. I was right about Mr. Zero, and I had the inside goods on Winnie Mandela long before the Truth and Reconciliation Committee did, so have a little faith in me, and stay from Jenks. And don't worry about Dustin Hermanson- he's going to start the season on the DL.

-Detroit- I just don't have any faith in Todd Jones- I think last year was a fluke for Jones- Keep an eye on this one and be prepared to grab Fernando Rodney if Jones falters.

Monday, March 20, 2006

A Trip to Mother Russia


So I planned a trip to Russia in order to pay my respects at the Milosevic funeral. This was rather sudden and I didn't have time to find a ticket to use my frequent flier miles, and so I was a little burned up. And I was little nervous going there, because I had sort of cheated the Russian mob during that diamond heist in Leningrad right after those bastards starting taking the Wall down in '89, and I figured the Russian mob was still a little sore at me. And when people like that get a little sore at you, they try to kill you. And so I took a few bodyguards with me, just in case.

So I'm sitting down at the ceremony, and everyone's coming up paying their respects and throwing flowers and what not and saying how great Milosevic was and how much he did for the rights of Serbs everywhere, and then all of a sudden Crotop the Moldovan Bear comes up to me. I thought he had been working in the States, but apparently he was deported again. I asked him why- if it was his visa or something- but then he shook his head and told me it was because he broke someone named Megan's law or something. What a country America is! That individual citizen's get their own laws. That's a bit too free-spirited and wishy-washy if you ask me.

So then Crotop tells me that without Milosevic protecting me in the Balkans, I could be through- the Russian mafia would see to that- and that I should go with him to a meeting and that they could work out a deal with me and then I'd be safe.

And that's how I knew they were going to come at me. The Russian mob was going to arrange a meeting through Crotop, and at that meeting I was going to be assassinated. That's the smart play for Crotop. Crotop was always smarter.

That's the way people are in this business- they come to you in your moment of weakness- they come as your friends- and you don't see it coming. And so I recognized this Moldovan wolf in sheep's clothing for what he really was, and decided to make my move.

So I told Crotop we should leave the funeral and take my car to go meet with the mob. He made a call to his boss Barzinov, and then we headed for my car. I had my bodyguards already waiting by the car- they knew the drill.

"You get in the car Crotop- but I'm not going with you." I told Crotop.

"But you have to go with me to the meeting -otherwise you'll mess everything up...." he explained.

But then Crotop paused for a second, and suddenly it dawned on him what was coming next, and his heart sunk.
"McStallen - can you get me off the hook- for old time sake?" he begged.

I just smiled and shook my head. "Can't do it, Crotop."

"Mikhael- It was nothing personal, just business." said Crotop.

And then I pushed him into the car and one of my body-guards fired a .22 slug into his head.
We dumped the body in the Volga and headed off.

Well that wasn't business for me- that was all personal, I god damn guarantee it.


---------------------------------------------------------------
On to more cheery news...

"Among individuals, as among nations, respect for the rights of others is peace."

So said Benito Juarez. And today is the 200th birthday of Benito Juarez, the former president of Mexico and champion of "La Reforma." Mr. Juarez served two terms as Mexico's president in the 1860s, and worked to fight both oppression by the Roman Catholic Church and the French government. The French probably deny this now- just like they deny everything else in their past pertaining to misdeeds, violence, aggression etc. A decade from now they'll probably deny the chronic rioting and civil disobedience that's been ravaging their landscape.

Anyway Feliz Navidad Mr. Juarez. Feliz Navidad.

Monday, March 13, 2006

Milosevic Remembered

Today has been a very emotional day for me, and I now report to you that the father of Serbian nationalism, and the patron saint of Balkan genocide, Mr. Slobodan Milosevic, has passed away of natural causes.

It seems like everyone has a Slobodan Milosevic story or two, so I figure I'll share mine with you all. Now way back in early '98 I was working for the KLA, and was out with a frog-man team mining the Danube when a Serb riverboat spotted us with their searchlight. They fired some warning shots form their .50 cal, and plucked us right out. They tortured us a bit, standard Geneva convention violations- nothing noteworthy- and then took us back to headquarters.

My Serbian captors were familiar with my work, and figured "the Boss" would like to see me.
So they put me in an armored personnel carrier and took me off to Mr. Milosevic' chateau.

They brought me into his chambers under heavy guard and I was quite nervous.
He was seated, busily sorting through 8x10s of various Croatian citizens, putting them in one pile labeled "Kill" and another labeled "Put in jail- probably kill later."

Then he looked up for a second and winked at me.
"Ahh McStallen- I know of your work in El Salvador, South Africa and Eritrea. And the Laotian circus animal massacre in '77... beheading those circus monkeys...It was, how you say, big inspiration?"

Then he looked down at one of the 8x10s and spat at it. "Fuck your mother." he mumbled to the 8x10 under his breath. Then he looked up at me again.

"If a man kills your child, the way you get back at that man is to kill several of his children. And maybe someone else' children too. And blow something up and torture your neighbors. And then kill your neighbors. Then you get vengeance for your dead child, and you can sleep easy. And that's the way we do it here."

Brilliant. I knew at once this flawed man was a kindred spirit.

We were roughly the same age, and had both killed lots of people, and so we had alot in common and hit it off pretty well. So we got talking, and he worked out a deal for me. He'd forget about the stuff in the Danube if I'd train and fight with two companies of anti-aircraft units so that we could fend off the criminal NATO airstrikes that were destroying the beautiful Balkan countryside and causing untold harm to a great number of innocent people.

So for about 6 months, I trained brave young Serbs, and later myself fought in the Great War of NATO Aggression, and Mr. Milosevic treated me like a son. It was alot of work, but there was some play time too- me and "Slobo" would usually spend our Sundays fishing and sniping for Croats at the local market or go tear-gassing war orphans.

Work wasn't that bad either- with help from fellow mercenary Crotop the Moldovan Bear, I shot down a commercial airliner from South Korea (that'll teach 'em), and also had several unconfirmed hits on NATO bombers. NATO would never own up to losing one of their aircraft if we shot it down anyway- you know the way they are. And Wesley Clark? What a joke. And that's the way the West is- always disseminating false propaganda to further their own agenda- like the Gulf of Tonkin, or the lunar landing, or evolution...long live William Jeninngs Brian and death to the gold standard.

Right, now so I saw that American twit Owen Wilson make a mockery of our efforts with his jingoistic "Behind Enemy Lines." Alot of people tell me "The Wedding Crashers" is good, but I've never seen it- and I never will unless that bastard Wilson apologizes for "Behind Enemy Lines." His next movie could be a bloody Oscar winner - I don't care- he's not getting any money from me any time soon.

So anyway as 1998 came to a close, I thanked Mr. Milosevic for his hospitality and told him I needed a change of scenery. He thanked me, we exchanged genital hand-shakes, and then parted ways. My heart was in the south, and I left for Bogota to recruit for FARC, but every so often I think back to the fond times I spent in Yugoslavia.

So long Slobodan- the world will be a different place without you around.